Shawn Marion And The 2009 Free Agent Class

The Dallas Mavericks have had two consecutive first round losses, a fired coach, and their starting small forward admit to enjoying an illegal drug (every now and again) during the off-season.  They have had a mid-season trade seemingly backfire on them and face the reality of having lost the “one of the best in the west” title this year.  So I thought I’d take a look at the different directions this team could go in the off-season.  If this team is going to make a trade and semi-dramatically change their overall team look, then only one option really jumps out at me – The Shawn Marion Scenario.

I’m sure Donnie is making the calls and might have a couple better options than this one, but I’m not privy to what other teams are asking for or willing to give up.  But the Shawn Marion Trade is a trade that makes some sense for both teams.  Miami gets a Shawn Marion type player for more years.  Dallas gets a better player than Josh Howard and salary cap space at the end of this year.

There are two places to check and see if your brilliant tade can actually take place under the convoluted nba rules:  place one, and place two.  And if you want to check out Mark Cuban’s thoughts on end of the season, and the thought process to the Jason Kidd trade you can here.  One of the ideas, the cash for a late first round draft pick, might actually be helpful to the Mav’s future.  As I think there is good nba talent in this draft – maybe even late.

(FA) = Free Agent
(R) = Rookie
(T) = Traded For

2008 Mavs Offseason

It starts out with a Miami – Dallas trade.  Dallas receives Shawn Marion, Miami receives Josh Howard, Jerry Stackhouse, Eddie Jones (if he agrees to it).

Draft
In the draft the Mavs would trade 3 million dollars for a late first rounder, then trade that pick and three million to move up again and select Brandon Rush.  And with their second pick select a small forward, we’ll say Victor Calver.

Free Agents
Earl Boykins- made $542,040 last year with the Bobcats and, while being the shortest player in the league, offers real value at that price.  He is quick and gifted offensively.

Jannero Pargo - signing him to a deal close to 4 or 5 years – 24 million.  Jannero Pargo made 2 million dollars last season and has a player option for $2 million this season, but will probably opt out for more money.  He’s a fairly quick point guard who can shoot and defend.  With Devon Harris gone he would be a very nice pick up.

Patrick O’Bryant- is a 7 foot center who has been in the league two years.  He only played last year due to being injured in his rookie season.  He was the ninth pick in the draft two years ago and is worth taking a shot on - as he is a skinny 7 footer who could run the floor and block shots.  Hoping for a poor man’s Tyson Chandler here.

The 15 Man Roster
PG    Jason Kidd             Jannero Pargo(FA)           Earl Boykins(FA)
SG    Jason Terry            Brandon Rush(R)             Antoine Wright
SF    Shawn Marion(T)    Deveon George               Victor Calver(R)
PF    Dirk Nowitzki           Brandon Bass                  Malik Allen
C     Erick Dampier           Patrick O’Bryant(FA)        Jamal Magloire

2008 Team Review
Shawn Marion is an upgrade from Josh Howard and is comfortable in an up-tempo offense.  Part of the reason I like this year’s draft so much is the fact you can find talent in the middle of it, Brandon Rush is one of the guys I like.  He is 6′ 7″ and can do a little bit of everything.  With Rush, Marion and Pargo added to the team it becomes more athletic, taller, and better offensively while gaining good defensive players.  This team would probably finish in the 3 to 6 seed area and could advance multiple rounds.  In all likely hood they would compete for a championship and be fun to watch.

The Future
Jason Kidd and Shawn Marion would be free agents at the end of the season giving the Mavs plenty of salary cap space.  With the convoluted rules the nba employs I’m not sure how big of an advantage this could be for signing free agents.  That year’s class may look something like this:

Elton Brand, Los Angeles Clippers
Corey Maggette, Los Angeles Clippers
Allen Iverson, Denver
Jason Kidd, Mavericks
Shawn Marion, Mavericks
Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers (Has a player option for 23 million)
Lamar Odom, Los Angeles Lakers
Steve Nash, Phoenix (Team option for 13 million)
Andre Miller, Sixers
Baron Davis, Warriors
Rasheed Wallace, Pistons
Ron Artest, Kings (If he doesn’t opt out this year)
Drew Gooden, Bulls
Ben Gorden, Bulls
Mike Bibby, Hawks

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Update July 1, 2008 – Baron Davis and Elton Brand have opted out a year early.  Surprising considering one was set to make 17.18 million and the other, Elton, 16.44 million.  Things like that, players opting out of that kind of money, don’t happen very often.  Especially considering they aren’t top twenty players.  Corey Magette has also opted out, but that was more expected considering he would have made only 8 million next season and he scored over 20 ppg this season.
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With perhaps Josh Smith of the Hawks and Emeka Okafur being in that group as well, I’m not sure because I don’t know the rules having to do with qualifying offers.  This is an interesting scenario as the possibilities are open.  I wouldn’t mind seeing some of those free agents on this team.   But there is also a danger with this plan, there are so many variables the Mavs could end up seeing the door close on them real quick- (but would that ever happen to a Mark Cuban run team)?

Other Possible Trades ( All can happen as of May 29 2008 )
Dallas Receives                                          Minnesota Receives                                  New York Receives
Antoine Walker                                          Josh Howard                                              Jerry Stackhouse
Jared Jeffries                                                                                                                        
Minnesota’s #3 overall Pick

Dallas Receives                                          New York Receives
Zack Randolph                                           Jason Kidd
Malik Rose

Dallas Receives                                          New York Receives
Zack Randolph                                           Josh Howard
Renaldo Balkman                                       Jerry Stackhouse
New York’s #6 overall pick                           Eddie Jones (if he agrees to it)
                                                               Dallas 2009 first round pick + $3 million

Dallas Receives                                          Utah Receives
Andrei Kirilenko                                         Jason Terry
Morris Almond                                           Jerry Stackhouse + 3 million

Dallas Receives                                          Indiana Receives
Jermaine O’Neal                                          Jason Kidd
                                                                3 million 

Dallas Receives                                          Indiana Receives
Jermaine O’Neal                                          Josh Howard
Jamaal Tinsley                                             Jason Terry
                                                                Jerry Stackhouse
                                                                Eddie Jones (if he agrees to it)

Dallas Receives                                          Milwaukee Receives
Michael Redd                                             Josh Howard
Charlie Villanueva                                         Jerry Stackhouse
                                                                Eddie Jones (if he agrees to it)
                                                                Brandon Bass