A Maverick Possibility

The Mavericks are in a limbo sort of state at the end of this year.  Even if they were to strike a puncher’s chance and knock out the LA Lakers in the first round (if indeed that turns out to be who they play), they almost certainly will not compete for and win a championship this year and in their current form not next year either.  They need to change something, get lucky with who they draft or get lucky with a key small free agent signing.  It is the change something that I am interested in here as I consider a trade that would certainly peak my interest. 

Young players who are good, relatively cheap and signed for a long period of time are, of course, valuable.  The Mavericks having traded Devon Harris, not having Jason Kidd under contract another year, and with Josh Howard’s character and play receding, obviously don’t have a whole lot of value to barter with other teams.  But I came across a trade (checking it out at realgm.com’s trade checker) that I think may make sense for both teams and give the mavericks such a player in return.  Here’s how the trade breaks down:

Dallas gets:
O.J. Mayo – 18.3 ppg; 3 years at about $14 million and a fourth qualifying year starting at $7.39 million.
Darko Milicic- 5.7 ppg; 1 year left at $7.5 million.
Hamed Haddadi- 2.8 ppg; 2 years left ???.
Marko Jaric – 2.2 ppg; 2 years left at at total of about $14.7 million

Memphis gets:
Jason Terry – 19.7 ppg; 3 years left at a total of about $32 million
Josh Howard – 17.5 ppg; 1 year left at $10.89 million, with a team option for a second year at $11.84 million. 

This seems like a trade that would boost Memphis by giving them 2 players who score around 20 ppg (and I believe Memphis is going to have a lottery pick in this years draft), while giving Dallas a young player who scores about 20 ppg and has more years under his contract.  It would also allow Memphis to dump salaries of players who don’t play very much.  I think this is one of the more realistic and prudent moves Dallas could make this summer, but this wouldn’t make them a championship contender.  However it would give them a stronger foundation on which to make moves having O.J. Mayo and Dirk Nowitzki could attract better players to sign here.  Also, the mavericks would have much more pliable salaries in the years to come.

If I were . . .

Gm of any team in any sport, these would be my beginning principles.

1.  Coach and Systematic Approach

Hand pick a coach with whom you share the same overall systematic approach to the game.  So that both you and the coach have the ability to step back and follow the same certain principles set down before intense personnel decisions have to be made.  Someone smart and confident, and has enough patience to allow a systematic approach of the game to work.  When hiring this coach and agreeing to the system, you are saying “no player will be above the team, no player will be above the system.”

This is the most important decision a team can make, and the beginning principles would need to be both overall and narrow.  For instance in the overall issues you would decide:  Do we run a west coast or run driven offense;  do we value big or speedy lineman;  do we rely on power or contact hitters; do we play inside out or movement offense.  Then you move to more narrow issues like what kind of character do you ask your scouts to zero in on, what kind of drills and offseason workouts to enhance precision, are left handed players miles and away better than right handed players at certain positions, etc.

This can go on forever and should.  There should be a well thought out system in place that gives you an advantage over all other teams who wing it.

2.  Playoff Mentality

This one is sort of weird, because you would think that it is really obvious.  But a lot of teams go through the season with simply a hope to get into the playoffs and then MAYBE move forward.  It is not in the organization’s way of thinking that making it to the playoffs is the beginning of the real season – not the end of it.  You have put your heart into the offseason, practices and regular season games to get to this starting point.  The playoffs is where it all begins.

That means there is no sense of accomplishment.  No loss of focus, because the goal of the season still remains empty.  But something does happen at the end of the regular season.  The real season starts and your team ought to be able to smell it and be hungry for it.  This can be influenced by environment, but also you have to make sure you draft, sign and trade for hungry players.

There is also a second aspect to the playoff mentality.  The One Game At A Time mentalaty  A mentally strong team knows what game they are playing and what they want from the game.  They know games aren’t won on paper, in the media or in Vegas (except for in the NBA).  They don’t come out and play last week’s game or next week’s game.  They, as a team, exist to demolish this weeks opponent.  They get up for the game they are playing in.

Obviously the Dallas Cowboys are the worst offender of this rule.

 3.  Freshness

Having a long term system that is known and followed by the team can have the unwanted side effect of stagnating creativity.  With this I might give the illustration of Devon Harris.  He was in a Maverick’s uniform for a while.  But the people chosen to lead the organization had a specific role they tried to push him in.  Not that that is bad, but when you see talent and know that it is there yet not coming out in all the ways you thought it could, you should then readjust your own glasses and try different things with him.

This quality in an organization is all about not getting caught standing flat footed.  Just because you have certain long term principles you follow does not mean there is no room for creativity and experimentation.  John Danks goes to the White Sox and picks up a cutter which really helps him in his second year.  Someone had to be convinced a cutter would really help him, convince him and then have him add this to his arsenal.

Freshness is about eyeing the players, the team and yourself and then moving beyond the trenches you have dug for yourself that are not working or not working as well as possible.  You should always keep a team on their toes, it has a way of making the opposing team the one always chasing you. 

4.  Irrelevant – Relevant Media

Never allow the media to effect, or should I say infect, your decisions.  If something is not working right you should have a firm grasp of why it is not working.   The media is not there to think, it is there to feed an unhealthy appetite of newspaper columns, blogs, talk radio and television.  The media is DUMB.  It does not think more than one step ahead – if that.  Consider it irrelevant when it comes to anything involving personnel decisions.

I think the Texas Rangers may actually make a number of their decisions based on how they think the media will react.  It’s as if whenever they make a decision the media is in the room looking at them.  Which is why oftentimes they look like a chicken with its head cut off.  The media is there for interacting with your fan base, that part of the media is relevant.  The media that thinks it can and should think for you is not.

5.  Crisp Short Window Transactions

These are situations that shoot up for a short time every now and again while not always looking the same.  Sometimes you’ll have a Milton Bradely on the free agent market not getting any interest, sometimes Eric Gagne, sometimes there will be a team willing to trade you Travis Hafner for Einar Diaz, sometimes Manny Rameriz will be on the market being short shrifted with a two year offer, sometimes a team will be willing to trade you Kevin Garnett for a bunch of cheetos and Al Jefferson.

When these spontaneous short windowed situations occur, you must have the vision and capacity to capitalize.  Teams can rise and fall with how these situations turn out.

6.  Winning at The Edges

Pretty simple, just find those small areas were you can gain an honest advantage against your opponent.  Whether in certain drills, certain odd usage of the rule book.  Whether it be in the locker room, on the field or in the front office, search high and low for that HONEST edge and take it.

Merry Christmas Rangers

For this Christmas I’m giving the Texas Rangers some free advice.  I haven’t paid all that much attention to baseball in the past 6 months and I’m not sure how all the Type A/Type B free agents will affect the Rangers draft, but this is a wonderful opportunity to get two players that would really help this team at a fraction of normal costs – so go do it.

Sign – Manny Rameriz (3 years 68 million)
Sign – Pettite (1 year 12 million base with incentives to make 16 million)
Sign – Livan Hernandez – give him a bullpen role with opp. to be your closer. (1 year 4 million)
Sign – Rich Aurilla – (1 $680,000)

This would give the Rangers a fighting chance next year to hit a spark.  And someway/somehow they’re going to have to find a way to make their bullpen better, most likely through trades.  Guys like Frank Catalanotto, Hank Blaylock, Nelson Cruz and some of the so-so bullpen guys need to be put out there by themselves or in a collection to see if they can’t bring two or three reliable bullpen arms.

It hurts me to say it, but they hardly have a clue.  Yet all their wingding fans are in a frenzy over the children on the farm.  The ones who are playing with cows right now are going to be like Barry Bonds was in his early years.  Like Pedro Martinez except with maybe a better fastball.  Yep doesn’t take much to get by as a Ranger fan.

If the fan base doesn’t demand sanity, why would shifting Tom Hicks deviate from his postion of gobbledygook.

Merry Christmas to all and to all a blessed life.

Dallas Mavs Roster Oct. 30 2008

The Dallas Mavericks roster this year seems to be set.  No major changes this year.  It’s talented, it could compete – but the title is still far from reach.  Talent is not the main obstacle, in the drags of the nba season it is the tendency to lose and cool, extinguish the fire to hold that trophy high that will be this team’s greatest enemy.  The fire they had in the 2006 nba playoffs, but let the fire morph into fear and hesitancy as the 2007 season turned into the 2007 playoffs.

This year they come to the floor armed at point guard with:

Jason Kidd, Josea Berea with Jason Terry filling in at this position as well.

Old and fragile, but capable of suppling the play necessary if Kidd comes through.  It is a big if and will only succeed wildly if Kidd is inspired by his greed for a new LARGE Contract.

At shooting guard they come armed with:

Jason Terry, Jerry Stackhouse, Antione Wright and Gerald Green.

Again fragile.  Jason Terry is streaky by nature – which is common among shooters.  He is small for this position and despite his preseason talk in the past two years – he hasn’t come to play and play hard in the postseason.  Jerry Stackhouse will play inspired for 10 games, get injured and then take a while to get back to inspired play, then go through the whole cycle again.  The wild cards here are Antione Wright and Gerald Green, let’s hope they bring something consistently good to the table.

At small foward the Mavs come smoking with:

Josh Howard, Devon George and Shawn Williams.

If the Mavericks season turns out how they want it to, these boy will be running and dunking.  Easy baskets, easy baskets, easy baskets.  These guys have to play like kids, happy and energetic.  I think if Josh Howard isn’t too sparse between the ears it will show this year.  He could come out swinging and completely turn his image back around.  Devon George needs to get back to being a role player – a good role player.  Giving the defense, the hustle and the occassional 3 that championship teams need.  Go figure Shawne Williams, I don’t know much about him.

The overwhelming strength:  Power Foward

Dirk Nowitzki, Brandon Bass and Jason Singleton.

Nowitzki and Bass can bring it.  They’ll need to.  This team doesn’t run without Dirk and losses its margin for error without Bass.

Center

Eric Dampier and Desagana Diop.

Not a strength but not bad, I imagine Bass will be spending a lot of time here.\

Prediction:  Same old, same old.  They’ll be fun to watch, fun to track, but ultimalely it won’t amount to much as the harsh reality of getting bogged down in referee calls, opponent superstar play and lack of self will to seperate them from the pack in the playoffs will eventually paint the Dallas Mavericks in the 2008-2009 season – not the best.  Now for the fun part go PROVE me wrong.

The Dallas Mavericks Roster – both trick and treat.  Happy Seasons.

I love this guy.  He’s my favorite person in the world.

And I found this recently too.  It was hard for me to believe it at first, but if you see it – it makes sense.  If you click on more info you will receive a play by play of naughty stern.  The guy throws the fourth card against the bubble denting the corner of the card.  Stern looks in and grabs a card with a card on top of it.  Guess which card comes out – that’s right the dented one.  The dented corner ends up in David Stern’s left hand.  This guy is filthy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1mN3OGRGybA

Milton Bradley Prediction

I just want to make a prediction on July 15, 2008 at 2:16p.m., 4 hours and 45 minutes before the MLB All Star Game, that Milton Bradley will be the MVP.

Elton Brand and Baron Davis Opt Out

It’s very surprising considering Elton was set to make 16.44 million and Baron 17.18.  The story, I guess, is they want to play together.  Elton Brand is going to take less money from the Clippers and Baron Davis is going to also sign with the Clippers.  This would make the Clippers a more formidable team, but not a championship contender in the west.

Now, my hope for the Mavs is somehow they can get their hands on Tayshaun Prince, since Detroit wants to make major changes in personal after losing in the Eastern Conference Finals and firing their coach.

Genus

Jon Daniels is brilliant.  Genus.  Or is it Ghengus.  Guinnesses.  Genesis.  Ya he’s that.  He has developed one of the great farm systems in all of the Minor Leagues.  Congratulations.  The Good Guys over at Baseball Time in Arlington have made a list in dedication to his brilliance.  Luminous.  Genus.  Guinnesses.  Ya that.

Well I being. . . . Well I I being . . . . Well I being whoever. . . whoever the heck dang dash dog I am.  I decided to make my own little list, in honor of my good pal and drinking partner Jon Daniels.

It’s a list of Jon Daniels little reign in Arlington minus all his trades.  Did you hear me right?  I said it’s a list of Jon Daniels professional pursuit here in Arlington minus all his genesis little trades, genus trades.  In the list I include players he has signed as free agents (example Vincente Padilla, who although traded for became a free agent and signed with us).  I also disinclude all those Jon Daniels traded yet they became free agents and signed elsewhere (this group would include the Alfonso Sorianos and Francisco Corderos).  Let us begin.

1.  Ian Kinsler 2B – not drafted by JD
2.  Micheal Young SS – not traded for by JD
3.  Adrian Gonzalez LF – not traded for by JD
4.  Mark Teixeira 1B – not drafted by JD
5.  MIlton Bradley RF – signed as free agent by JD
6.  Hank Blaylock 3B – not drafted by JD
7.  Frank Catalanotto DH – signed as free agent by JD
8.  Brandon Boggs CF – not drafted by JD
9.  Gerald Laird C – not traded for by JD

Kevin Millwood – signed as free agent by JD
Vincente Padilla – signed as free agent by JD
Chris Young – not traded for by JD 4 -4 with a 4.50 era this year (been injured) rest of years traded away 20 -13 with era under 3.4
Edinson Volquez – not signed as free agent by JD 10 – 2 with a 1.71 era 95 innings 110 strikeouts
John Danks – not drafted by JD 4 – 4 with a 2.80 era in 86.2 innings

Josh Rupe – not traded for by JD
Joaquin Benoit – not signed as free agent by JD
C.J. Wilson – not drafted by JD
Frankie Francisco – not traded for by JD
Nick Masset – not drafted by JD 0 – 0 with a 3.41 era in 31.2 innings with 27 strikeouts
Jamie Wright – signed as free agent by JD
Eddie Guardado – signed as free agent by JD

I don’t know about you guys, but I don’t see a lack of talent on this team.  And to be honest I really like the starting rotation.  Plus you get the benefit of still having guys like Eric Hurley, Chris Davis, Taylor Teagarden and Kasey Kiker in the minor leagues.  So although Jon Daniels is a gangus, I think I could do without all his gangusesses of trades. Genus.  Genesis.  Guinness. That, Ya maybe he’s that.

Goodbye .500, Hello Common Sense

Jarrod Saltalamacchia represents a turning point for the organization that derives its name from those more honorable lawmen.  It is in him and in him uniquely that the Ranger organization can peer into its profound and basic incompetency.  Its magazinish like dedication to the existing trend.

Why is Jarrod unusually gifted for this delineation?  Well it all begins with a trivial aspect of player development, evaluation.  If you want to be more specific individual player evaluation.  A comprehensive intake and assessment where you reasonably project the completion of that player’s mutational process.  Jarrod’s pedigree suggests he is more than capable to be one of, if not the best offensive catcher in the game.  Projecting and displaying the somehow disappearing emblem that represented the last 15 years, Power.  Not only that when fully developed he stands to be average to solid defensively, though his current defense is below this.  Armed with a bit of athleticism, a strong arm and a positive attitude he looks to have three factors that warrant reasonable optimism his defense will improve with consistent play.

But the simple actuality he exhibits faults presently in his game has kept the Rangers from allowing his project-ability to earn him a starting spot in the Ranger’s lineup.  Allowing Gerald Laird, the 28 year old catcher who last year did not live up to General Washington’s game calling expectations, and most certainly not any offensive expectations (.224, .278, .349 in 407 ABs), to this year play 21 more games with the major league club than the 22 year old prospect.

Now if this all goes back to player evaluation it can be said that Gerald has never and will never project to be close to the kind of player with the type of value Jarrod could provide for this ball club. He has never been his organizations top prospect.  He has never been considered one of the top 40 prospects in all of baseball.  He has never been traded for with one of the best players in all of baseball. His career line of .257, .308, .387 in 1150 Plate Appearances certainly suggests his project-ability was correct – above average throwing out runners, average to below at the plate.  Yet because at the age of 28 he is more developed than a twenty two year old – he is placed out alongside and ahead of real talent.

Mediocrity standing in the way of potential greatness.  The fallacy the Ranger’s organization holds fast to – that somehow greatness grows on the bench and even a more prevalent thought in the Ranger’s organization – somehow dependability, progress and production grow out of being juggled from one place to the next, one role to the next, based on the most short sampled results.  The Rangers aren’t long term investors, they’re day traders.  But maybe the Laird injury and Saltalamacchia opportunity will turn this ship around.  Optimism I know but when the Rangers say goodbye to Gerald Laird, goodbye to .500 and mediocrity, maybe, just maybe they will say goodbye to the obvious idiocy of their thought patterns and hello to common sense.  Naaa, but it was worth a try.

 

Terrell Owens To Sign Extension

The 34 year old Terrell Owens now has a chance to retire a Cowboy.  The Three Year Extension is going to be in the neighborhood of the extension Randy Moss signed, somewhere in the 9 million a year category.  No word if the contract is constructed in one year increments like his last contract.  The signing probably makes sense, but I would rather have a less talented team than have Terrell Owens on my team.

Shawn Marion And The 2009 Free Agent Class

The Dallas Mavericks have had two consecutive first round losses, a fired coach, and their starting small forward admit to enjoying an illegal drug (every now and again) during the off-season.  They have had a mid-season trade seemingly backfire on them and face the reality of having lost the “one of the best in the west” title this year.  So I thought I’d take a look at the different directions this team could go in the off-season.  If this team is going to make a trade and semi-dramatically change their overall team look, then only one option really jumps out at me – The Shawn Marion Scenario.

I’m sure Donnie is making the calls and might have a couple better options than this one, but I’m not privy to what other teams are asking for or willing to give up.  But the Shawn Marion Trade is a trade that makes some sense for both teams.  Miami gets a Shawn Marion type player for more years.  Dallas gets a better player than Josh Howard and salary cap space at the end of this year.

There are two places to check and see if your brilliant tade can actually take place under the convoluted nba rules:  place one, and place two.  And if you want to check out Mark Cuban’s thoughts on end of the season, and the thought process to the Jason Kidd trade you can here.  One of the ideas, the cash for a late first round draft pick, might actually be helpful to the Mav’s future.  As I think there is good nba talent in this draft – maybe even late.

(FA) = Free Agent
(R) = Rookie
(T) = Traded For

2008 Mavs Offseason

It starts out with a Miami – Dallas trade.  Dallas receives Shawn Marion, Miami receives Josh Howard, Jerry Stackhouse, Eddie Jones (if he agrees to it).

Draft
In the draft the Mavs would trade 3 million dollars for a late first rounder, then trade that pick and three million to move up again and select Brandon Rush.  And with their second pick select a small forward, we’ll say Victor Calver.

Free Agents
Earl Boykins- made $542,040 last year with the Bobcats and, while being the shortest player in the league, offers real value at that price.  He is quick and gifted offensively.

Jannero Pargo - signing him to a deal close to 4 or 5 years – 24 million.  Jannero Pargo made 2 million dollars last season and has a player option for $2 million this season, but will probably opt out for more money.  He’s a fairly quick point guard who can shoot and defend.  With Devon Harris gone he would be a very nice pick up.

Patrick O’Bryant- is a 7 foot center who has been in the league two years.  He only played last year due to being injured in his rookie season.  He was the ninth pick in the draft two years ago and is worth taking a shot on - as he is a skinny 7 footer who could run the floor and block shots.  Hoping for a poor man’s Tyson Chandler here.

The 15 Man Roster
PG    Jason Kidd             Jannero Pargo(FA)           Earl Boykins(FA)
SG    Jason Terry            Brandon Rush(R)             Antoine Wright
SF    Shawn Marion(T)    Deveon George               Victor Calver(R)
PF    Dirk Nowitzki           Brandon Bass                  Malik Allen
C     Erick Dampier           Patrick O’Bryant(FA)        Jamal Magloire

2008 Team Review
Shawn Marion is an upgrade from Josh Howard and is comfortable in an up-tempo offense.  Part of the reason I like this year’s draft so much is the fact you can find talent in the middle of it, Brandon Rush is one of the guys I like.  He is 6′ 7″ and can do a little bit of everything.  With Rush, Marion and Pargo added to the team it becomes more athletic, taller, and better offensively while gaining good defensive players.  This team would probably finish in the 3 to 6 seed area and could advance multiple rounds.  In all likely hood they would compete for a championship and be fun to watch.

The Future
Jason Kidd and Shawn Marion would be free agents at the end of the season giving the Mavs plenty of salary cap space.  With the convoluted rules the nba employs I’m not sure how big of an advantage this could be for signing free agents.  That year’s class may look something like this:

Elton Brand, Los Angeles Clippers
Corey Maggette, Los Angeles Clippers
Allen Iverson, Denver
Jason Kidd, Mavericks
Shawn Marion, Mavericks
Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers (Has a player option for 23 million)
Lamar Odom, Los Angeles Lakers
Steve Nash, Phoenix (Team option for 13 million)
Andre Miller, Sixers
Baron Davis, Warriors
Rasheed Wallace, Pistons
Ron Artest, Kings (If he doesn’t opt out this year)
Drew Gooden, Bulls
Ben Gorden, Bulls
Mike Bibby, Hawks

———————————————————————————————————————————————————————
Update July 1, 2008 – Baron Davis and Elton Brand have opted out a year early.  Surprising considering one was set to make 17.18 million and the other, Elton, 16.44 million.  Things like that, players opting out of that kind of money, don’t happen very often.  Especially considering they aren’t top twenty players.  Corey Magette has also opted out, but that was more expected considering he would have made only 8 million next season and he scored over 20 ppg this season.
————————————————————————————————————————————————————————–

With perhaps Josh Smith of the Hawks and Emeka Okafur being in that group as well, I’m not sure because I don’t know the rules having to do with qualifying offers.  This is an interesting scenario as the possibilities are open.  I wouldn’t mind seeing some of those free agents on this team.   But there is also a danger with this plan, there are so many variables the Mavs could end up seeing the door close on them real quick- (but would that ever happen to a Mark Cuban run team)?

Other Possible Trades ( All can happen as of May 29 2008 )
Dallas Receives                                          Minnesota Receives                                  New York Receives
Antoine Walker                                          Josh Howard                                              Jerry Stackhouse
Jared Jeffries                                                                                                                        
Minnesota’s #3 overall Pick

Dallas Receives                                          New York Receives
Zack Randolph                                           Jason Kidd
Malik Rose

Dallas Receives                                          New York Receives
Zack Randolph                                           Josh Howard
Renaldo Balkman                                       Jerry Stackhouse
New York’s #6 overall pick                           Eddie Jones (if he agrees to it)
                                                               Dallas 2009 first round pick + $3 million

Dallas Receives                                          Utah Receives
Andrei Kirilenko                                         Jason Terry
Morris Almond                                           Jerry Stackhouse + 3 million

Dallas Receives                                          Indiana Receives
Jermaine O’Neal                                          Jason Kidd
                                                                3 million 

Dallas Receives                                          Indiana Receives
Jermaine O’Neal                                          Josh Howard
Jamaal Tinsley                                             Jason Terry
                                                                Jerry Stackhouse
                                                                Eddie Jones (if he agrees to it)

Dallas Receives                                          Milwaukee Receives
Michael Redd                                             Josh Howard
Charlie Villanueva                                         Jerry Stackhouse
                                                                Eddie Jones (if he agrees to it)
                                                                Brandon Bass